Monday, September 8, 2008

THE CUBS NEED TO PLAY THE DODGERS IN THE FIRST ROUND OF THE PLAYOFFS

Right now the Cubs own a 4 game lead over the Milwaukee Brewers, and sit atop the National League’s Central Division. With 19 games remaining (only 6 of those at home), they have the league’s best record. Barring a major collapse by both the Cubs and the Brewers, the NL Central champion will have home field throughout the playoffs.

IF THE SEASON ENDED TODAY:

EAST- New York Mets (80-63)
CENTRAL- Cubs (86-57)
WEST- Los Angeles Dodgers (73-70)
WILD CARD- Milwaukee Brewers (82-61)

DODGERS AT CUBS
BREWERS AT METS

CONTENDERS:

Now, obviously the Brewers aren’t in this discussion. Because the Cubs and Brewers are in the in same division, they cannot face each other until the NLCS. However, I will add the Philadelphia Phillies and Arizona Diamondbacks to the conversation. Both are in the hunt for division championships. The Phillies trail the Mets by 2 games in the East. The D’Backs are 1.5 games behind the first place Dodgers.

NEW YORK METS:
80-63
2 game lead over Phillies in East

CUBS LEAD SEASON SERIES 2-0 WITH 4 GAMES REMAINING AT NEW YORK.

PITCHING:

ANYONE ELSE BESIDES SANTANA?--- Johan Santana is the only name in this starting rotation that scares me, but he is very scary. The Cubs would face him twice if the series goes 5 games. His 2.70 ERA is 3rd in the league. However, there isn’t much after that. Pedro Martinez hasn’t been the savior like some Mets fans were hoping. In 17 starts Pedro is 5-4 with a 5.44 ERA. John Maine, Oliver Perez, and Mike Pelfrey don’t exactly scare anyone either.

CLOSER BILLY WAGNER DONE FOR SEASON--- Wagner will have season ending surgery after tearing his MCL. He leads the team with 27 saves. Aaron Heilman is 2nd on the team with 3 saves. With Wagner unavailable the Cubs would fare better against Heilman if the Mets have a lead in the 9th. The righties out of the pen are shaky, but left handers Scott Schoeneweis and Pedro Felciano have been solid and could be trouble for Kosuke Fukudome, Jim Edmonds, Micah Hoffpauir, and Daryle Ward.

HITTING:

METS CAN HIT---They hit a solid .266 as a team. The Cubs are leading the league by hitting .280. This could be a slugfest if these two teams meet up. The Mets have struck out the fewest of any team in the NL. Jose Reyes sets the tone from the lead off spot. David Wright, Carlos Delgado, and Carlos Beltran have combined for 82 home runs and 303 runs batted in!

MANAGING:

MANAGER JERRY MANUEL’S INEXPERIENCE IN PLAYOFFS--- Manuel has managed 3 career playoff games. His record is 0-3. He managed the 2000 White Sox to a division championship, but the Sox were swept out the playoffs by the Seattle Mariners. That Seattle team was managed by Cubs manager Lou Pinella.

OTHER FACTORS:

GOOD DEFENSE---They are very good defensively with a .986 fielding percentage. Reyes and Jose Castillo may the best double play combo in the league.

PLAY WELL ON THE ROAD---With a 38-36 record on the road, the Mets are 1 of only 5 teams in the league to be over .500 on the road. With the Cubs having home field, the Mets could very well come in to Wrigley and take at least one game.

THEY WILL RUN---This team has speed. Reyes will run at any time. His 47 swipes are 2nd in the league. Castillo has his fair share of stolen bases also. They are second in the league in taking bases. This will put pressure on the pitching staff and Geovany Soto to slow them down.


LOS ANGELES DODGERS:
72-70
1.5 game lead over Diamondbacks in West

CUBS TOOK SEASON SERIES 5-2. CUBS SWEPT 3 AT HOME AND SPLIT 4 IN LA

PITCHING:

BILLINGSLEY NOW THE ACE--- The Dodgers have the league’s best ERA and have given up the fewest home runs, which may surprise some out there. While the starter’s records aren’t off the charts, they just don’t give up runs! Out of nowhere, Chad Billingsley has turned into the ace of this staff. He is 2nd in the league in strikeouts, 6th in wins, and 6th in ERA. While he doesn’t scare me as much as Johan Santana, it may be tough to win a short series while facing him twice. After that it becomes questionable. Brad Penny is expected to return from the disabled list within the next 10 days. Will we see good Penny or bad Penny. Bad Penny is about all Dodger fans saw earlier this season. In 17 starts so far this season, he is 6-9 with a 6.05 ERA. Derek Lowe, Clayton Kershaw, and Hiroki Kuroda round out the rotation. They are all capable of picking up a win in the postseason.

BACK END OF BULLPEN--- Takashi Saito and his team high 17 saves is expected back from the DL next weekend, but Jonathan Broxton has filled in nicely with 13 saves of his own. One will remain the closer while the other is expected to drop into the set up role, making it a very tough bullpen.


HITTING:

NO POWER---The Dodgers don’t hit many home runs, even with the addition of Manny Ramirez. They are 14th in league in long balls. This will force them to play small ball to beat the Cubs. Former Cub Juan Pierre is 3rd in the league with 38 stolen bases. Simply put, Russell Martin is the Cub’s Geovany Soto. We all know how much Geo means to us offensively and behind the plate. If Jeff Kent can get healthy for the playoffs, he can become a factor. He always seems to play well against the Cubs. Plus, he has playoff experience.

MANNY--- Manny Ramirez is the guy you single out say, “Let’s not let him hurt us.” His postseason experience helps, but how long will it be till Manny decides to just be Manny again? Just about anything negative that he does may hurt the chemistry of this young team.

MANAGING:

JOE TORRE--- Not much needs to be said here. I think Torre has the managerial advantage over Lou. Torre’s success in New York speaks for itself. He is definitely one of the top managers in the game.

OTHER FACTORS:

YOUNGSTERS---This team is young. A big question mark was how manager Joe Torre could lead the young players after working with mostly veterans in the Bronx. He may get them into the playoffs, but how will they play in the “heat” of October.

NO HOME FIELD ADVANTAGE--- I know this isn’t the Florida Marlins, but come on, but Los Angeles fans aren’t exactly the most vocal of baseball fans. When this series goes to Cali for Game 3, the fans will come late and leave early. It may be full for innings 3 thru 6…MAYBE.

ROAD WOES--- LA struggles with a 28-40 record on the road.


PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES:
78-65
2 games back of first place Mets

CUBS LOST SEASON SERIES 3-4. CUBS LOST 2 OF 3 IN PHILLY AND SPLIT 4 AT WRIGLEY.

PITCHING:

HAMELS---Starting pitching is solid, but I think the Cubs stack up well against the Phillies after Cole Hamels. Hamels is 7th in the league with a 3.12 ERA and 3rd with 180 strikeouts. Hamels would pitch twice in a 5 game series, which could be troublesome. Even though Philly is 3rd in the league in ERA, I don’t think Jayme Moyer, Kyle Kendrick, and Brett Myers will give the Cubs many problems.

BULLPEN---The pen is very good. Brad Lidge is 3rd in the league with 34 saves. J.C. Romero, Ryan Madson, Chad Durbin, and Clay Condrey have helped make games short for opposing teams by dominating the late innings.

HITTING:

BIG THREE---Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins, and Ryan Howard are all legitimate superstars. The Phillies are 1st in the league in home runs. Howard’s the main threat. He leads the league with 40 homers and with 121 RBIs. In addition, Pat Burrell has 30 home runs, but he strikes out a lot. Besides that, there isn’t much. Philadelphia is 11th in the league in hitting. If you can some how slow down 2 of the big three, the Cubs could take the series.

MANAGING:

CHARLIE MANUEL---Manuel’s never won a playoff series. He was swept by the red hot Rockies last season. He lost in 5 games versus Pinella’s Mariners in 2001.

OTHER FACTORS:

ROAD---They are good on the road with a 39-36 record away from Philadelphia.

EXPERIENCE--- This team, which is basically the same as last years, was in the playoffs last season. They now know what to expect and will be looking to play better after getting swept by Colorado.

HOT STREAK--- The East may come down to the final week. If it does and Philadelphia wins the division, they will be playing well. They could be a dangerous team come the postseason, just like the 2007 Rockies.


ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS:
71-71
1.5 games behind first place Dodgers

CUBS WON SEASON SERIES 4-2. SWEPT 3 AT WRIGLEY AND LOST 2 OF THREE IN THE DESERT.

PITCHING:

STARTERS---This is how Arizona wins ballgames. Brandon Webb, Dan Haren, and Randy Johnson scare me a lot. Webb is the favorite to win the Cy Young as he leads the league with 19 wins. Haren is 4th in the league with 178 strikeouts and 9th with a 3.41 ERA. Randy Johnson has never lost to the Cubs. However, Webb and Haren have struggled lately so maybe they won’t be as effective.

BULLPEN---Former closer Jose Valverde is now a Houston Astro, but closer Brandon Lyon is a solid replacement. The bullpen can be effective, but are the Cubs really scared of former Cub Juan Cruz?

HITTING:

NOTHING TO BE AFRAID OF---The D’Backs are hitting only .251 as at team, 12th in the league. No one in the lineup really scares you, besides former Red Adam Dunn. His 36 home runs are 2nd in the league. Dunn is a Cub killer, but he also strikes out a lot. As bad as the offense is, we must still remember they scored enough runs to sweep us out of the playoffs last season. Orlando Hudson and his .305 average is a catalyst for this team, but he doesn’t scare you as much as Reyes or even Pierre.

MANAGING:

Even though manager Bob Melvin took down the Cubs last season, the advantage still goes to Lou. His track record and World Series championship speak for itself.

OTHER FACTORS:

SHAKY DEFENSE---They don’t field well at all. Arizona is 13th in the league with a .982 fielding percentage.

REVENGE FACTOR---The Cubs will be ready this year. While Arizona’s pitching may slow down the Cubs they won’t get swept, especially with the home field advantage.

ROAD STRUGGLES--- Arizona struggles with only a 31-40 record away from Phoenix. This could help the Cubs as the first two games will be at Wrigley.



A Look at the Cubs
86-57
4 game lead over Brewers in Central

Sometimes when you watch a team as closely as I do with the Cubs, you lose perspective and recognize weaknesses more than strengths. So I will simply look at the statistics like I did with the previous 4 teams to breakdown the Cubs.

PITCHING:

STARTERS--- The Cubs are 4th in the league with a 3.86 ERA. No one knows what the Cubs will get from Carlos Zambrano and Rich Harden down the stretch, but you figure the organization will do everything possible to get them ready for the playoffs. With those two on, a 5 game series will end very quickly. Zambrano has 13 wins, and Harden’s ERA is a miniscule 1.50 since coming over to the National League. Ryan Dempster may be the best starter. He is 4th in the league with 15 wins, 5th with a 2.99 ERA, and 7th with 167 strikeouts. He hasn’t faded yet, but will his arm hold up after all these innings? Dempster was the closer last season.

BULLPEN---Kerry Wood is 5th in the league with 28 saves. Carlos Marmol has found his dominating stuff once again. After those two you don’t know what you’ll get. Jeff Samardzija has been very good, but can he pitch this well in the postseason? Bob Howry has been ineffective. Neal Cotts has struggled. In the playoffs Sean Marshall and Jason Marquis may move the pen, which will help.

HITTING:

STRONG LINEUP---Aramis Ramirez is 3rd in the league with 100 RBIs and finds ways to get big hits at the right time. Derrek Lee is 2nd in the league with 167 hits. Ryan Theriot is 7th in the league with a .310 average. Mark Derosa is having a career year. Geovany Soto has serious power. The platoon of Jim Edmonds and Reed Johnson in center has been very productive. When these guys are on this offense is upstoppable.

MANAGING:

LOU---While some Cub fans criticize Lou for some of his in-game mistakes this season, his managerial record speaks for itself. Lou won a World Series with the Reds in 1990. He hold an advantage against all opposing managers, besides Joe Torre.

OTHER FACTORS:

HOME DOMINANCE---The Cubs have an NL best 51 wins at home. With home field advantage, this will help out tremendously.

CAN THEY REGAIN THE SWAGGER?--- The Cubs are struggling lately, but if they can regain the form of the past 5 months, they could march easily into the World Series.

DEFENSE--- The defense can be a problem at times. They are 11th in the league with a .982 fielding percentage.

WHO I WOULD LIKE TO SEE THE CUBS PLAY IN THE FIRST ROUND:

DODGERS:

I think the Cubs match up best against the Dodgers. The starting rotation matches up well against the Cubs. If you shut down Manny, the offense could be ineffective. The youth of the team will catch up to them with most of the team playing in their first postseason. Plus, the Cubs have played the better against L.A. than any other playoff contender.

I think METS would be the 2nd best opponent. The rotation is hittable after Santana.

ARIZONA would be the 3rd best opponent. Their hitting is not good, but the big three in the rotation scare me.

I don’t want to play the PHILLIES at all. If this team gets hot, they can be very tough to beat come October.

WE’LL SEE HOW IT ALL PLAYS OUT!

Morgan

1 comment:

uisjmc Cabalka said...

All I have to say is that I don't wish for the Cubs to lose in the playoffs. I would love love love if they Crew and the Cubs had to duke it out to be the representative of the NL. I think that would be the best competition, just as long as the Crew doesn't peform how they did against the Cubs in July...
Let's just cross our fingers for both teams considering they need it after both teams past horrible weeks....